Recent Posts

RHB Indonesia - Property: Real Estate - Towards a More Positive 2017 - (Property, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional, Pembangunan Perumahan

Good morning,

Property: Real Estate - Towards a More Positive 2017

The majority of companies we spoke with have expressed more positive views for 2017, as evident in the 34% YoY growth in targeted aggregate marketing sales to IDR31.6trn. This supports our OVERWEIGHT view on the sector for 2017, where the companies’ aggregate presales target is in line with our presales target of IDR31.7trn. Indonesian developers under our coverage booked an aggregate 15% YoY decline in marketing sales in 2016, due to weaker macroeconomic conditions and uncertainties prior to the implementation of the tax amnesty programme.
Rabu, 22 Februari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Results Review: Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR9,800), Changing Focus To Improve Margins

Results Review:
Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR9,800)
Changing Focus To Improve Margins
In January, Semen Indonesia slightly raised its ASP to partly pass on higher energy costs to customers. To boost earnings, we note that it is now focusing more on growing profitablity than increasing market share. The company’s 4Q16 earnings came in above our expectations, driven by a gain on taxes from asset revaluations, as well as higher other income. We remain NEUTRAL on the stock, with a DCF-based TP of of IDR9,800 (7% upside) that also implies a FY17F P/E of 12x.

RHB Indonesia - Semen Indonesia - FY16 Earning Above Expectation, Driven By Lower Tax Rate - (Semen Indonesia)

Good morning,

Semen Indonesia - FY16 Earning Above Expectation, Driven By Lower Tax Rate

While Semen Indonesia’s FY16 earning was flat at IDR4.5trn, it accounts for 105%/112% of our/consensus full-year estimates. Above expectation earnings was largely driven by lower-than-expected effective tax rate. Based on our calculation, the company’s effective tax rate declined to only 10.8% in FY16 (from 22.7% in FY15). On operational basis, the situation remains challenging with Semen Indonesia’s sales and EBIT declined to IDR26trn (-3% YoY) and IDR5trn (-16% YoY), respectively.

Selasa, 21 Februari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Astra International - Expect Astra's Financial Services Unit To Recover - (Astra International, Adhi Karya, Waskita Karya)

Good morning,
Astra International - Expect Astra’s Financial Services Unit To Recover
Bank Permata’s FY16 losses are likely to slow group earnings growth. However, higher earnings from Astra’s automotive, agribusiness and heavy equipment units should partially offset the lower income from its financial units. We reduce our FY16F earnings but keep our FY17F forecast, as we expect its financial services arm to recover this year. In 2017, Astra should also benefit from improved consumer spending, as well as higher CPO and coal prices. Our SOP-based TP drops to IDR9,100 (from IDR9,250, 15% upside) implies 19x/16x FY17/18F P/Es. BUY.
Senin, 20 Februari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Exports And Imports Pick Up Strongly In Jan 2017 - (Export-Import, Waskita Karya, Adhi Karya, BI 7 Days RR Rate)

Dear Siti,

Good morning,

Exports And Imports Pick Up Strongly In Jan 2017

Exports increased 27.7% YoY in Jan 2017, led by an acceleration in non-oil & gas exports. Moving forward, we envisage exports of goods and services to return to a growth of 6.8% in 2017, from -3.9% in 2016 on:
1. A low base effect;
Jumat, 17 Februari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Retail - Tailwinds Trump Headwinds - (Retail, Strategy, Bank Tabungan Negara, Bank Mandiri)

Good morning,

Retail - Tailwinds Trump Headwinds

We see stronger signs of improvement in consumer demand and expect the trend to continue, supported by better commodity prices, lower interest rates, and more investment inflows. In addition, rationalised expansion over the last few years should help retailers’ margins, in our view. As such, we believe retailers in general would do well this year. We reinitiate coverage on the sector with OVERWEIGHT. In particular, we like turnaround efforts at Mitra and Ramayana. Key risks include political instability and currency volatility that could prolong the recovery process.
Kamis, 16 Februari 2017