Recent Posts

RHB Indonesia - Results Review: Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,200), A Likely Better Outlook In 1Q17



Results Review:
Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,200)
A Likely Better Outlook In 1Q17

We see a better earnings outlook in 1Q17 driven by better sales mix and higher ASPs. Indofood CBP plans to launch more higher-priced products variants – such as Indomie Real Meat and Pop Mie Meaty – thanks to the strong demand in this high product market segment. Indofood increased ASPs to boost EBIT margin, after its 4Q16 EBIT margin narrowed on QoQ basis. FY16’s earnings came in line with expectation. Maintain BUY with a DCF-based TP of IDR10,200 (19% upside), implying 27x and 21x FY17F-18F P/Es respectively.
Senin, 27 Maret 2017

RHB Indonesia - Engineering and Construction - Time To Rise (Indofood CBP, Matahari Putra Prima)




Good morning,
Engineering and Construction – Time To Rise 
We see a good entry point for Indonesia’s construction sector as it underperformed YTD by - 3% relative to the JCI, dragged down by a poor share performance of PTPP. We highlight PTPP as our top pick, while being a laggard (-10% YTD), as its fundamentals remained intact. We maintain NEUTRAL on Adhi due to its uncertainty on LRT’s payment and a loss from EPC up to IDR250bn. Although showing a strong performance, we also recommend NEUTRAL on Wika due to its expensive valuation, single digit growth and ROE.

*We recommend BUY on Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP). As PTPP’s share price dropped by nearly 10% YTD, we see this as a good entry point as the company’s fundamentals remain intact. Its new contracts collection also show progress with IDR6.6trn in mid of March, 16.5% of our FY forecast, much improved compared to last year.
*Currently, the stock is trading at 13.8x FY17F P/E, -0.45SD from its average historical forward P/E and c. 21% discount to Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR2,100); historically PTPP traded at higher valuation to Adhi. At the current level, we consider the stock a bargain in the construction sector, as it is supported by strong earnings growth of c. 46% and a margin expansion to 15.2% in FY17F due to a higher contribution from EPC projects.
Jumat, 24 Maret 2017

RHB Indonesia - Bank Pan Indonesia - Company Meeting Key Highlights (Bank Pan Indonesia, Astra International)




Good morning,
Bank Pan Indonesia – Company Meeting Key Highlights

On Wednesday, we had meeting with Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN IJ, NR). Few highlights:

*Panin would continue to focus on SME and commercial lending (ticket size of IDR5-10bn) while selectively corporate loans that Panin already familiar with. As such, Panin targets merely 10% loan growth at max for this year.
*Panin expect mild pressure in asset quality issue. Having said that, gross NPL ratio would hover around 2.7-2.9% by end of year (Dec-16: 2.8%).
*Liquidity should not be a major issue as Panin already trimmed its TD rate since November last year yet the customer deposits still growing. With soft loan growth projection, LDR would remain manageable for Panin.
Kamis, 23 Maret 2017

RHB Indonesia - Perusahaan Gas Negara - Disappointing Quarter, Investment Thesis Intact (Perusahaan Gas Negara, Bumi Serpong Damai)




Good morning,
Perusahaan Gas Negara – Disappointing Quarter, Investment Thesis Intact 
While PGN's earnings base is now at its lowest in the past five years, upcoming improvements are likely, amid higher crude oil prices and the potential uptick of economic activity, driven by higher commodity prices. Post results, we maintain our BUY call with a lower TP of IDR3,450 (vs IDR4,000, 36% upside) on the back of 14.8% and 12.2% reductions in FY17-18 earnings estimates respectively. 
Rabu, 22 Maret 2017

RHB Indonesia - Results Review: Unilever Indoensia (UNVR IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR48,500), Higher ASPs Likely To Boost Margin




Results Review:
Unilever Indoensia (UNVR IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR48,500)
Higher ASPs Likely To Boost Margin
Our ground checks suggest that Unilever has aggressively raised its ASPs in Dec 2016 and Jan 2017. This should boost its EBIT margin. However, it is likely be on the expense of slower sales volume growth. We saw some strengthening of consumer demand in 2016, although it has not fully recovered yet. 4Q16’s earnings were in line with expectations thanks to the widened EBIT margin, especially in the food & refreshment divisions. Maintain NEUTRAL with a DCF-based TP of IDR48,500 (10% upside), implying 52x FY17F P/E.
Selasa, 21 Maret 2017

RHB Indonesia - Results Review: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR15,700), Competition Likely To Remain Intense




Results Review:
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR15,700)
Competition Likely To Remain Intense

Competition in domestic cement industry – especially in Indocementbased markets – is likely to remain intense. The company booked a lower 2M17 sales volume, as well as lower market share. To deal with the current competition, Indocement gave more discounts for its Tiga Roda brand and increased penetration of its second brand Rajawali in the West Java market. To boost its earnings, the company shifted production to its new plant, which is more efficient. Maintain NEUTRAL with a DCF-based TP of IDR15,700 TP (2% downside), premised on 15x FY17F P/E.
Senin, 20 Maret 2017