Recent Posts

RHB Indonesia - Lippo karawaci - Corporate day feedback - (Lippo Karawaci)




Good morning,

Lippo karawaci - Corporate day feedback

Last Thursday, we’ve brought Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ, Under Review) to our 2017 regional corporate day at Kuala Lumpur, a few key points as below:
¨ Management expect marketing sales of residential properties to pick up by 2H17, once the sensitivities of declaring assets related to the tax amnesty program are settled.
¨ 2016 marketing sales has largely underperformed its target due to sensitivities related tax amnesty that deter buyers from pulling their triggers, meanwhile, banks' mortgage rate in general has not dropped enough, in contrary to lower BI rate.
Selasa, 24 Januari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Sector update: Regional Property - Has The Dust Settled?




Sector update:
Regional Property
Has The Dust Settled?
While sentiment in the property markets in China and Singapore have largely stabilised, we believe the markets in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia would still need some time given the existing macro headwinds. We expect upcoming elections in the region to potentially bring volatility to the sector. However, given sound fundamentals and continued infrastructure investments, we are OVERWEIGHT the property sector in Indonesia, Thailand and China and NEUTRAL on Singapore and Malaysia.
Senin, 23 Januari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Real Estate - Has The Dust Settled?- (Regional Property, BI 7 Days RR rate, Nippon Indosari, Bumi Serpong Damai)




Good morning,

Real Estate - Has The Dust Settled?

While sentiment in the property markets in China and Singapore have largely stabilised, we believe the markets in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia would still need some time given the existing macro headwinds. We expect upcoming elections in the region to potentially bring volatility to the sector. However, given sound fundamentals and continued infrastructure investments, we are OVERWEIGHT the property sector in Indonesia, Thailand and China and NEUTRAL on Singapore and Malaysia.
¨ 2016 performance review. The Indonesia and Thailand property markets performed relatively better compared to other countries in the region. Both property indices appreciated by more than 5% in 2016. Meanwhile, as expected, the Malaysia property sector was the worst performer as the KL Property Index declined by 5% last year.
¨ Upcoming elections in the region a risk. In 2017, apart from the weakness in economic growth, we think sentiment would likely stay cautious given several upcoming elections in the region. These include the general election in Malaysia (due in May 2018), Jakarta governor’s election in Indonesia, as well as general election in Thailand. Therefore, market concerns on political landscape may, to some extent, hinder the demand for big ticket items.
¨ Expect a slower 1H17versus2H17. Given the challenging outlook on political and economic front, together with volatile commodity prices and currencies, we expect the property market in the region to likely be slow in 1H17. However, we believe sentiment may turn more positive in 2H17as some of the concerns on the macro economy and politics subside.

RHB Indonesia - Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate - Company Visit Notes - (Bekasi Fajar)




Good morning,
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate - Company Visit Notes
We have a quick update on Indonesia’s leading industrial estate developer, Bekasi Fajar – BEST IJ. It posted strong sales in last quarter of 2016 and decent start in 2017.
¨ Strong 4Q: Bekasi Fajar booked 24.3ha marketing sales in 4Q16, 78% of its FY16 sales (~31ha). Strong 4Q16 allowed the company to meet company’s FY16 target of 30ha.
¨ 2016 ASP +23% YoY: 2016’s average selling price was IDR2.7mn/sqm, +23% YoY from IDR2.2mn in the previous year.
¨ Indication: the company indicated relatively strong 2016’s revenue, which may reach ~IDR800bn (118% of consensus). EBITDA margin is expected to stable around 60% level. Based on the given info, we estimate 2016 bottom line may reach IDR340-400bn (121% - 143% from consensus).
¨ 2017 target: flattish volume & ASP. This year, management targets 25 – 30 Ha of marketing sales (similar to 2016 target). 2017 capex allocation will be IDR700 – 800bn that includes potential 20 Ha of land acquisition.
Kamis, 19 Januari 2017

RHB Indonesia - Bank Tabungan Negara: Not Slowing Down Yet - 18 January 2017 - (Bank Tabungan Negara, Puradelta Lestari)




Good morning,

Bank Tabungan Negara: Not Slowing Down Yet

Maintain BUY on BTN with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of IDR2,420 (27% upside). BTN is one of our Top Picks due to its undefeated position in the lower-income mortgage market, with a projected higher market share of 32.6% by end-2017F (end-2016: 31.5%). Provisions should remain manageable due to its substantial mortgage exposure, where loans are secured by the relevant properties. We believe a lower payout ratio would be crucial in maintaining its CAR at sufficient levels, as BTN is expected to grow its loan book by at least 18% over the next three years.
Rabu, 18 Januari 2017

Di Depan Para Pemuka Agama, Sri Mulyani Beberkan Kondisi Ekonomi RI


Jakarta - Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati mengundang para Pemuka Agama Kristen untuk berdialog tentang perekonomian Indonesia. Khususnya terkait dengan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2017 dan perpajakan.

Acara dilangsungkan di Kantor Pusat Direktorat Jenderal Pajak (Ditjen Pajak), Jakarta Selatan. Setidaknya ada sekitar 100 orang dari berbagai Agama hadir dalam dialog tersebut. Di awali dengan paparan dari Sri Mulyani.
Senin, 16 Januari 2017